Nashon Adero
Geospatial & Systems Modelling Expert (Dr.-Ing., Mining Engineering Surveys) | Author & Policy Analyst | Youth Mentor & Founder, Impact Borderless Digital (IBD) | Lecturer, Patron – Enactus Club, Taita Taveta University
August 5, 2025
Today, from 18:30 to 19:15 EAT, I held an engaging X-Space meeting with Brian Wesaala as a keynote speaker. Brian is a football guru who has been promoting the sport as he assiduously co-organises the Africa Football Business Summit series. We were exploring the mathematical chances of various teams competing in the African Nations Championship (#CHAN) tournament. Why and how did we meet? The first meeting took place in October 2024 at the 2024 Africa Football Business Summit, where I held a session on my Made in Kenya World Cup Prediction Models. It has been my passion as a youth mentor to popularise mathematics using play-based methods. Since launching my football prediction modelling in 2018—delivering exhilarating forecasts at the 2018 World Cup and even greater accuracy in 2022—I’ve never looked back. It has become my magnetic strategy for demystifying mathematics for the masses, from a mystery mastered by few to the mainstream enjoyment.
Speaking as a geospatial and systems modelling expert and a lecturer in surveying, I secured my fair chance at stressing to the diverse audience that football is a 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐-𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝒐𝒑𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒔𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒍𝒆𝒎, requiring disciplined utilisation of pitch geometry, angles, and synergy in the players’ positions while exacting accuracy and precision in time and space.
It should not be lost on Kenyans that applied geospatial knowledge is indispensable if the country is to realise organised development across space over time. A sterling example was mounted when a professor of geospatial engineering recently successfully defended why he was best suited as a commissioner to help handle the boundary challenges the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is grappling with. He demystified the role of mathematics in understanding the shape and size of the Earth, the shared stage on which elections take place within determined constituency boundaries.
Drawing on the many variables I used to accurately predict the outcomes of the 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cup tournaments, I steered the discussion to converge on four critical variables that should heavily contribute to deciding the winners in CHAN: 𝕥𝕖𝕒𝕞 𝕔𝕠𝕙𝕖𝕣𝕖𝕟𝕔𝕖, 𝕥𝕒𝕔𝕥𝕚𝕔𝕒𝕝 𝕚𝕟𝕧𝕖𝕟𝕥𝕚𝕧𝕖𝕟𝕖𝕤𝕤, 𝕞𝕖𝕟𝕥𝕒𝕝𝕚𝕥𝕪 𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕞𝕚𝕦𝕞, 𝕒𝕟𝕕 𝕤𝕔𝕠𝕣𝕚𝕟𝕘 𝕕𝕣𝕚𝕧𝕖. Mentality was appreciated as a key variable that determines team performance, hence the appreciation of the monetary incentive President Ruto offered the Kenyan team. However, it was acknowledged that there ought to be a systemic approach with strategic institutionalisation of structured incentives to ensure that the teams can sustain a highly motivated state in the long term.
Brian was able to expertly articulate the position of East African teams relative to the more favoured North African teams, resting his lucid argumentation on the latter’s key differentiators in 𝓼𝓬𝓸𝓻𝓮 𝓭𝓻𝓲𝓿𝓮, 𝓽𝓪𝓬𝓽𝓲𝓬𝓪𝓵 𝓲𝓷𝓿𝓮𝓷𝓽𝓲𝓿𝓮𝓷𝓮𝓼𝓼, 𝓪𝓷𝓭 𝓱𝓸𝓷𝓮𝓭 𝓼𝓴𝓲𝓵𝓵𝓼𝓮𝓽.
On the variable of resistive nucleus, it was evident that more intentional monitoring is still needed to help accurately gauge how the teams have prepared a strong defence, an impregnable barrier to conceding goals. However, West African teams displayed some early signs of being the champions of #tenacity gradient, a key variable, due to their staying power.
Brian had the following to add, “𝗪𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀/𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻 𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝘀/𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮𝘀, 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗧𝗘𝗠 𝗯𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 persons. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝗰𝗮𝗻’𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 pitch. 𝗪𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀.”
George Kasamani enlightened the space on the need to watch out and spare a thought for #Algeria, #Nigeria, and the #DRC as the teams that can pull a surprise. This position was reinforced by the variable of #serendipity, which tends to favour the perceived underdogs.
On geographical variables, the fact that the match is taking place in Africa was considered, and so were the climatic differences between North Africa, West Africa, and East Africa.
Overall, this engaging public discussion on social media provided a welcome layer of citizen science and expert elicitation, which should now make watching #CHAN even more enjoyable, mathematically. Stay tuned for our CHAN mathematical prediction models – made in Kenya, which we will start sharing on social media walls soon.
Link to the full X-Space recording here, starting to play after about two minutes: https://x.com/i/spaces/1MnxnwwlglBKO
Link to a simplified narration of the 2022 FIFA World Cup Model – Made in Kenya: https://www.digiface.org/testing-and-tasting-the…/